With violence in Israel and Lebanon escalating, it was interesting to hear President Bush say on Sunday “the international community must address the root causes” of the conflict.
“Addressing root causes” is usually a demand made by those opposing the use of force to solve conflicts in the region. The idea is if one understands the various reasons and forms of responsibility for the violence, one might be able to address each party’s claims and find ways to achieve peace. Political scientists sometimes distinguish between two different kinds of root causes – immediate and long term. Both kinds are active today.
Immediate root causes are the most direct reasons for the violence. Bush pointed to this kind of cause when he said “the cause of the crisis” was Hezbollah’s decision “to capture two Israeli soldiers and fire hundreds of rockets into Israel.”
Long-term root causes refer to deeper conditions, habits and strategies formed over time that lie behind the immediate causes. In the Arab-Israeli conflict, the long-term root causes are the competing Israeli and Palestinian national claims. In the current crisis, the Bush administration says Iran is the root cause. Other causes at work may be expectations about prisoner exchanges formed during years of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
Just after Hezbollah captured the Israeli soldiers, experts explained the action as part of an older strategy to free prisoners held in Israel. This strategy also prompted the capture of another Israeli soldier by a militant group in Gaza in late June.
Issues of prisoner release may appear marginal when the politicians are talking of “terror/counterterror,” but, they are central to the parties in conflict – Israelis, Lebanese, and Palestinian alike. Each is prepared to go to great lengths to free their captured compatriots. In January 2004, the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon exchanged hundreds of prisoners for one abducted citizen and the remains of three soldiers. This exchange was coordinated with Hezbollah.
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Those who have captured the Israelis hoping to deal have, however, encountered another long-term cause of the violence: Israel’s determination to avoid being placed or perceived in a position of weakness. For its survival, Israel consistently seeks to maintain the military-strategic advantage and to punish those who make it appear vulnerable. It has thus responded to the abductions with overwhelming force, hoping to eliminate or deter those waging war against it.
This strategy may reduce attacks in the medium term, but it also preserves the cycle of violence and expands the scope of conflict. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to eliminate the PLO and was induced to withdraw partly by Hezbollah, whose military successes inspired Palestinian uprisings in the West Bank and Gaza. Hezbollah’s recent attacks have reached farther into Israel than ever. Israel is charging Iran with complicity. This reflects the Bush administration’s instincts. The scope of the conflict is growing. If the war expands, the United States (in Iraq) will be drawn in somehow.
Addressing root causes means addressing with creative policies the reasons that lie behind today’s violence. In addition to a cease-fire, it requires finding alternatives to the uncertain and permanent detention of captured combatants on all sides. One of the brokers of the 2004 deal wisely said, “With this agreement Israel and Hezbollah have achieved a breakthrough in seeking to soothe one of the most painful consequences of the Middle East conflict.”
That swap was very instructive: Positively, it proved that agreements over root causes between sworn enemies are possible. Negatively, it was a brokered deal, not an agreement to institutionalize internationally just and standardized rules of captured prisoner treatment and release. Such processes must be found, both for the captured and those concerned about them on the outside, where the pain remains and decisions to try to liberate their compatriots through force are made.
Unaddressed, long-term causes linger and promote further violence – today’s “most painful consequences” become tomorrow’s immediate root causes. Bush’s demand on the international community, if implemented seriously, could help stem the deadly and scary violence in Israel, Lebanon and Gaza today – and prevent more in the future.
Andrew Davison
Poughkeepsie, NY
Andrew Davison is associate professor of political science at Vassar College where he teaches courses in political theory and politics in the Middle East. His latest book is Conquering Hearts and Minds:The American War Ideology in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, 1990-2003. For more, see Andy Davison.
Published in the Poughkeepsie Journal.
Photo: Israeli/Hezbollah prisoner exchange of January 2004. From the Sydney Morning Herald.